Our Valuation Methodology
Every number MANDA produces has a traceable source and a documented formula. This page explains how we calculate your business valuation, where the data comes from, and what our confidence score means.
- Best / Base / Bear range
- Indicative purpose only. MANDA valuations are data-driven estimates intended to inform owner thinking and preparation for an M&A process. They are not a formal fairness opinion, certified appraisal, or financial advice. Engage a licensed M&A advisor and audited accountants before relying on any valuation for transaction, financing, or tax purposes.
- Up to four methods, one headline
- We compute your enterprise value (EV) with up to four methods. The EBITDA multiple sets the headline range, or the revenue multiple when adjusted EBITDA is not positive. Discounted cash flow and net asset value are shown beside it as cross checks where your inputs allow. Nothing is blended or weighted together. Each method looks at your business from a different angle, and seeing them side by side shows whether they agree.
- Your adjusted EBITDA multiplied by a sector-specific transaction multiple sourced from published European M&A data. We apply size and growth adjustments. Country risk is deliberately not applied to a multiple: no published source converts a country risk premium into EBITDA turns. Quality-of-earnings adjustments (recurring revenue, key-person risk, customer concentration) are applied before the multiple.
- A genuine 5-year free cash flow projection discounted at a country-specific WACC. Country risk is reflected here through a cited NYU Stern / Damodaran total equity risk premium, not in the multiple methods. FCF = adj. EBITDA × 67.5% (= 75% after-tax × 90% after maintenance capex). Terminal value uses Gordon Growth Model with a terminal growth rate capped at 2.5% (ECB rate + 0.5%). A 15% private company discount (DLOM) is applied.
- Revenue × an EBITDA-margin-adjusted revenue multiple. It sets the headline only when adjusted EBITDA is not positive, which is usually an early stage or fast growing business where the revenue trajectory signals value. The effective revenue multiple is derived from the same sector data as the EBITDA multiple.
- Total assets minus total liabilities. This is the liquidation floor: what the business is worth if you stripped it of its goodwill and future earnings. Used only when balance sheet data is provided, and shown as a cross check beside the headline. It is never the headline method for a going concern.
- Sector Multiples: Where They Come From
- Our multiple data has two distinct layers with different trust levels. Understanding the difference matters: only one figure comes from a published source. Per-sector estimates are clearly labelled as such and carry a lower confidence score in every valuation that uses them. We hold no verified transaction data of our own yet, and we do not describe anything as though we did.
- Layer 1: What businesses of this size sold for
- This is the only figure MANDA sources from a published index, and it is the strongest provenance we currently hold. It is not verified transaction data that we hold. When a company's sector has no sector-specific data, the engine falls back to this anchor and notes this in the methodology detail. Argos publishes one figure covering all industries together. It does not publish a separate figure for any single industry, so every per industry number on this platform is our own estimate worked out from that one figure, not something Argos published.
- Layer 2: Per-sector estimates (indicative positioning only)
- These figures are our estimates, positioned relative to the published 8.6× figure above. Argos publishes one figure covering all industries together. It does not publish a separate figure for any single industry, so every per industry number on this platform is our own estimate worked out from that one figure, not something Argos published. Sectors marked excluded are outside the source's coverage. Three industries are left out of the index entirely: financial services, real estate, and high technology. Argos does not collect them, so any figure we show for those industries is ours alone and is not supported by this source.Every valuation using an estimate-tier multiple shows a data quality notice and receives a lower confidence score.
- These per industry figures are our estimates, positioned relative to the 8.6× published figure for Q1 2026, with industry demand adjustments applied. They are not figures published by the Argos Mid-Market Index. The engine labels them as such in every valuation report and PDF.
- Geographic scope. This is a eurozone index. For a UK, Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Poland, or Switzerland business, MANDA uses it only as a European reference and states that mismatch in the valuation; it does not invent a country-level multiple adjustment.
- These are real approved comps only. The counter does not include pending or rejected records. Large-cap comps (public company take-privates) are held separately and cannot influence SME valuations. The engine enforces size-band isolation.
- Transaction Comps: The Honest Picture
- Transaction comparable analysis is in principle the most credible valuation method. It uses real deal prices from the same market. In practice, for European SMEs, the data is largely unavailable from public sources. Here is exactly what we have, what we are building, and what the engine does when the data is absent.
- SME transaction multiples are almost never publicly disclosed.
- The deals that DO disclose Enterprise Value + EBITDA are large-cap public-company takeovers (e.g. a £4.7bn PE take-private). These are entirely different from the €1M to €25M EBITDA SME segment that MANDA serves. We maintain a strict size-band firewall: large-cap comps are held in a separate classification and will never be applied to an SME valuation, regardless of shared sector label. The engine enforces this automatically.
- Transaction Comp Verification Tiers (T1 / T2 / T3)
- These tiers describe the source quality of each transaction record. They are separate from the sector-multiple tiers (Estimate / Published index / Verified transaction) described elsewhere on this page.
- DCF: Free Cash Flow and WACC
- FOR BUYERS
- Verified transaction (0 rows): We hold no transaction evidence of our own yet, so this tier is empty, and it is meant to be. It fills only as MANDA closes deals. We would rather show you an empty tier than borrow someone else's number and call it verified.
- We use only publicly available, peer-reviewed, or institutionally published data sources. We do not use LLM-generated numbers as valuation inputs. Each source is cited on every valuation report alongside the verification tier (estimate / published index / verified transaction).
- Medium sized European businesses sold for about 8.6× their profit in Q1 2026, according to the Argos Mid-Market Index, which tracks completed sales and is published by Argos Wityu. Who buys the business changes the price. Companies buying a competitor paid about 7.8× profit. Investment funds paid about 10.0×. The index only covers businesses inside the eurozone that are not listed on a stock exchange, worth between 15 million and 500 million euros, where the buyer took control rather than a minority stake. Each figure is a rolling median over six months. Three industries are left out of the index entirely: financial services, real estate, and high technology. Argos does not collect them, so any figure we show for those industries is ours alone and is not supported by this source. Argos publishes one figure covering all industries together. It does not publish a separate figure for any single industry, so every per industry number on this platform is our own estimate worked out from that one figure, not something Argos published. This is a published index, not verified transaction data held by MANDA. We use the eurozone figure as a European reference and do not make a per country adjustment to the multiple.
- The instant benchmark gives you an indicative value range in under 60 seconds, measured against completed sales of medium sized European businesses. The full valuation takes about 5 minutes, uses your own financials and shows up to four methods. Both are free. Both are indicative estimates, not a formal appraisal.
- The one success fee we intend to charge applies only when a deal closes. Provisional. No engagement letter has been drafted yet, so this is how we intend to charge rather than terms you can hold us to.
See what it's worth